Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Louis City win with a probability of 37.67%. A win for Atlanta United had a probability of 37.5% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Louis City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.04%) and 2-0 (5.82%). The likeliest Atlanta United win was 1-2 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.