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Ligue 1 | Gameweek 4
Sep 14, 2024 at 8pm UK
Parc des Princes
Brest logo

PSG
3 - 1
Brest

Dembele (42', 74'), Ruiz (73')
Beraldo (26'), Mendes (28')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Del Castillo (29' pen.)
Camara (39'), Ajorque (49'), Chardonnet (59')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Paris Saint-Germain and Brest, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Lille 1-3 PSG
Sunday, September 1 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Brest 4-0 St Etienne
Saturday, August 31 at 4pm in Ligue 1

We said: Paris Saint-Germain 3-0 Brest

Trying to get one over PSG has been a fruitless task for Brest for years, and Les Pirates' fortunes against the champions should not change in the capital this weekend, even with the hosts weaker in midfield than they were at the beginning of the month. Enrique's attackers have been scoring for fun and sharing the goals around so far this term, so another dominant win for the champions is the only outcome we can envisage. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 67.68%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Brest had a probability of 14.35%.

The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.67%) and 1-0 (8.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.2%), while for a Brest win it was 1-2 (4.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.

Result
Paris Saint-GermainDrawBrest
67.68% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04) 17.97% (0.038 0.04) 14.35% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
Both teams to score 57.11% (-0.146 -0.15)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
65.16% (-0.18600000000001 -0.19)34.84% (0.185 0.19)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
43.19% (-0.207 -0.21)56.81% (0.207 0.21)
Paris Saint-Germain Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.55% (-0.060000000000002 -0.06)9.45% (0.058999999999999 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
68.25% (-0.14 -0.14)31.74% (0.138 0.14)
Brest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.07% (-0.12 -0.12)36.93% (0.119 0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.28% (-0.118 -0.12)73.71% (0.117 0.12)
Score Analysis
    Paris Saint-Germain 67.68%
    Brest 14.35%
    Draw 17.97%
Paris Saint-GermainDrawBrest
2-0 @ 9.71% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
2-1 @ 9.67% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
1-0 @ 8.23% (0.055999999999999 0.06)
3-0 @ 7.64% (0.011 0.01)
3-1 @ 7.61% (-0.013000000000001 -0.01)
4-0 @ 4.5% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
4-1 @ 4.49% (-0.02 -0.02)
3-2 @ 3.79% (-0.018 -0.02)
4-2 @ 2.24% (-0.017 -0.02)
5-0 @ 2.13% (-0.008 -0.01)
5-1 @ 2.12% (-0.015 -0.02)
5-2 @ 1.06% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 4.51%
Total : 67.68%
1-1 @ 8.2% (0.029 0.03)
2-2 @ 4.82% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-0 @ 3.49% (0.033 0.03)
3-3 @ 1.26% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 17.97%
1-2 @ 4.09% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-1 @ 3.48% (0.021 0.02)
0-2 @ 1.73% (0.006 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.6% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.36% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.1%
Total : 14.35%

How you voted: PSG vs Brest

Paris Saint-Germain
92.3%
Draw
3.8%
Brest
3.8%
104
Head to Head
Feb 7, 2024 8.10pm
Round of 16
PSG
3-1
Brest
Mbappe (34'), Pereira (37'), Ramos (90+2')
Mounie (65')
Magnetti (14'), Brassier (60')
Brassier (69')
Jan 28, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 19
PSG
2-2
Brest
Asensio (38'), Kolo (45')
Hernandez (26'), Mbappe (53'), Zaire-Emery (58'), Barcola (90+2')
Barcola (90+4')
Camara (55'), Pereira Lage (80')
Lees-Melou (32'), Lala (53'), Brassier (59')
Oct 29, 2023 12pm
Gameweek 10
Brest
2-3
PSG
Mounie (43'), Le Douaron (52')
Roy (0'), Brassier (86'), Martin (87'), Bizot (88')
Zaire-Emery (16'), Mbappe (28', 89')
Hakimi (87'), Ruiz (88'), Mbappe (89'), Kolo (90+4')
Mar 11, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 27
Brest
1-2
PSG
Honorat (43')
Soler (37'), Mbappe (90')
Sep 10, 2022 4pm
Gameweek 7
PSG
1-0
Brest
Neymar (30')
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG1192033102329
2MonacoMonaco117221881023
3Marseille116232415920
4Lille115421811719
5Lyon115331815318
6Nice1145221111017
7Reims115241915417
8Lens11452129317
9Auxerre115152019116
10Toulouse114341311215
11StrasbourgStrasbourg113442022-213
12Brest114161419-513
13Rennes113261318-511
14NantesNantes112451417-310
15Angers112451320-710
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne113171025-1510
17Le HavreLe Havre11308823-159
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier112181131-207


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