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Championship header 2

League Two
Swindon Town
League Two | Gameweek 13
Oct 14, 2023 at 3pm UK
County Ground
Newport County

Swindon
2 - 0
Newport

Kemp (8'), Hepburn-Murphy (82')
Brewitt (36')
FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League Two clash between Swindon Town and Newport County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Swindon Town

All competitions
League Two
Last Game: Reading 5-0 Swindon
Tuesday, October 10 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

Newport County

All competitions
League Two
Last Game: Cheltenham 0-2 Newport
Tuesday, October 10 at 7.30pm in EFL Trophy

We said: Swindon Town 2-1 Newport County

 Swindon's home form has been near-perfect this season, with an opening draw against Crewe the only result stopping them from having a 100% record at the County Ground so far. Newport's start has been underwhelming but has shown bright sparks, especially in attack, but their defensive woes may cost them against one of the league's strongest forward lines. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 49.96%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 27.19% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.01%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-2 (6.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.

Result
Swindon TownDrawNewport County
49.96% (0.039999999999999 0.04) 22.85% (0.0030000000000001 0) 27.19% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
Both teams to score 61.05% (-0.044999999999995 -0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.52% (-0.044999999999995 -0.04)39.48% (0.048000000000002 0.05)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.18% (-0.046999999999997 -0.05)61.83% (0.051000000000002 0.05)
Swindon Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.99%16.02% (0.0039999999999978 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.65% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)45.35% (0.0080000000000027 0.01)
Newport County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.69% (-0.049999999999997 -0.05)27.31% (0.056000000000001 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.25% (-0.068999999999996 -0.07)62.76% (0.071000000000005 0.07)
Score Analysis
    Swindon Town 49.96%
    Newport County 27.19%
    Draw 22.84%
Swindon TownDrawNewport County
2-1 @ 9.52% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-0 @ 8.01% (0.016999999999999 0.02)
2-0 @ 7.34% (0.014 0.01)
3-1 @ 5.81% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-0 @ 4.48% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.77% (-0.004 -0)
4-1 @ 2.66% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-0 @ 2.05% (0.004 0)
4-2 @ 1.73% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
5-1 @ 0.98%
Other @ 3.62%
Total : 49.96%
1-1 @ 10.39%
2-2 @ 6.18% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
0-0 @ 4.37% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.63% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 0.27%
Total : 22.84%
1-2 @ 6.75% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
0-1 @ 5.68% (0.0039999999999996 0)
0-2 @ 3.69% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
1-3 @ 2.92% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.67% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.59% (-0.004 -0)
1-4 @ 0.95% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.94%
Total : 27.19%

How you voted: Swindon vs Newport

Swindon Town
100%
Draw
0.0%
Newport County
0.0%
9
Head to Head
Feb 4, 2023 12.45pm
Gameweek 30
Newport
2-1
Swindon
Norman (54'), Kavanagh (78')
Adeloye (90+1')
Oct 4, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 8
Swindon
1-0
Newport
Jephcott (51')
> Preview
Apr 9, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 41
Swindon
0-1
Newport
Conroy (90' og.)
Lewis (28'), Azaz (90+1')
Nov 20, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 17
Newport
1-2
Swindon
Telford (74')
Demetriou (32'), Dolan (62')
Azaz (73' og.), Payne (88')
Gladwin (69'), Reed (82')
Nov 9, 2021 7pm
Group Stage
Swindon
1-0
Newport
Lyden (57')
Minturn (19')

Missilou (21'), Hylton (53'), Upson (90+3')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
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> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Port Vale1610332416833
2Crewe AlexandraCrewe158431913628
3Doncaster RoversDoncaster168442218428
4Walsall1483327151227
5MK Dons168352719827
6Notts County167632315827
7Grimsby Town168171925-625
8Bradford CityBradford166552117423
9Gillingham157261612423
10AFC Wimbledon1371521111022
11Chesterfield165742920922
12BarrowBarrow166461715222
13Fleetwood TownFleetwood145632015521
14Salford City165651518-321
15Newport CountyNewport166281926-720
16Cheltenham TownCheltenham165382125-418
17Harrogate TownHarrogate165381422-818
18Accrington StanleyAccrington154562024-417
19Tranmere RoversTranmere144551017-717
20Bromley153751719-216
21Colchester UnitedColchester152851822-414
22Swindon TownSwindon162771825-713
23Carlisle UnitedCarlisle1633101429-1512
24Morecambe1624101427-1310
> League Two Full Table


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