Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 51.77%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 22.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.94%) and 2-1 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.02%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 0-1 (7.68%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
Result | ||
Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Estoril Praia |
51.77% ( -0.07) | 25.4% ( 0) | 22.84% ( 0.07) |
Both teams to score 48.38% ( 0.06) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
45.89% ( 0.04) | 54.1% ( -0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.47% ( 0.04) | 75.53% ( -0.04) |
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.08% ( -0.01) | 20.92% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.35% ( -0.02) | 53.64% ( 0.02) |
Estoril Praia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.18% ( 0.09) | 38.82% ( -0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.45% ( 0.09) | 75.55% ( -0.09) |
Score Analysis |
Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Estoril Praia |
1-0 @ 12.7% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 9.94% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.4% ( -0) 3-0 @ 5.18% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 4.91% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.32% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.03% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.92% ( -0) 4-2 @ 0.91% ( 0) Other @ 2.46% Total : 51.76% | 1-1 @ 12.02% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.12% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.45% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.8% Total : 25.39% | 0-1 @ 7.68% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 5.69% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 3.64% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.79% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.4% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.15% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.48% Total : 22.84% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 14 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 36 |
2 | Porto | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 9 | 24 | 34 |
3 | Benfica | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 8 | 24 | 32 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 27 |
5 | Braga | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 25 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 20 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 19 |
9 | Casa Pia | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 17 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 16 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | Nacional | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 12 |
14 | AVS | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 12 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
16 | BoavistaBoavista | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 11 |
17 | AroucaArouca | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 11 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 9 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |