Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Smorgon win with a probability of 37.78%. A win for Sputnik had a probability of 36% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Smorgon win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.31%) and 2-0 (6.42%). The likeliest Sputnik win was 0-1 (9.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Smorgon would win this match.