Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 48.17%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Botafogo had a probability of 25.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.2%) and 0-2 (9.07%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.35%), while for a Botafogo win it was 1-0 (8.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vasco da Gama would win this match.