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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 45.49%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 33.74% and a draw had a probability of 20.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.63%) and 3-2 (5.07%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (6.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
Result | ||
NEC | Draw | Ajax |
45.49% ( 3.84) | 20.77% ( -0.02) | 33.74% ( -3.83) |
Both teams to score 73.28% ( -0.99) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
74.73% ( -0.89) | 25.27% ( 0.89) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
54.73% ( -1.17) | 45.27% ( 1.17) |
NEC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.78% ( 0.87) | 12.21% ( -0.87) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
62.1% ( 1.8) | 37.9% ( -1.8) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.47% ( -1.98) | 16.52% ( 1.98) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.73% ( -3.7) | 46.27% ( 3.69) |
Score Analysis |
NEC | Draw | Ajax |
2-1 @ 8.03% ( 0.45) 3-1 @ 5.63% ( 0.49) 3-2 @ 5.07% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 4.46% ( 0.53) 1-0 @ 4.24% ( 0.37) 3-0 @ 3.13% ( 0.46) 4-1 @ 2.96% ( 0.35) 4-2 @ 2.66% ( 0.14) 4-0 @ 1.64% ( 0.29) 4-3 @ 1.6% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.24% ( 0.18) 5-2 @ 1.12% ( 0.1) Other @ 3.7% Total : 45.49% | 1-1 @ 7.64% ( 0.18) 2-2 @ 7.23% ( -0.09) 3-3 @ 3.04% ( -0.15) 0-0 @ 2.02% ( 0.12) Other @ 0.84% Total : 20.77% | 1-2 @ 6.88% ( -0.32) 2-3 @ 4.34% ( -0.36) 1-3 @ 4.13% ( -0.5) 0-1 @ 3.63% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 3.27% ( -0.27) 0-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.31) 2-4 @ 1.95% ( -0.31) 1-4 @ 1.86% ( -0.37) 3-4 @ 1.37% ( -0.17) Other @ 4.35% Total : 33.74% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 9 | 31 | 33 |
2 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 28 |
3 | Ajax | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 26 |
4 | Feyenoord | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 13 | 15 | 25 |
5 | FC Twente | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 11 | 13 | 22 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 17 |
7 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 17 |
8 | NECNijmegen | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 16 |
9 | Willem II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 15 |
10 | Go Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 15 |
11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 15 |
12 | Heerenveen | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 14 |
13 | Groningen | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 12 |
14 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
15 | Heracles | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 27 | -21 | 6 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 4 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |