Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 46.08%. A win for CF Montreal had a probability of 29.19% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (7.63%). The likeliest CF Montreal win was 0-1 (7.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Toronto would win this match.
Result | ||
Toronto | Draw | CF Montreal |
46.08% ( -1.85) | 24.72% ( 0.57) | 29.19% ( 1.28) |
Both teams to score 56.09% ( -1.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.31% ( -1.73) | 46.69% ( 1.73) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.04% ( -1.64) | 68.95% ( 1.64) |
Toronto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.66% ( -1.47) | 20.33% ( 1.46) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.28% ( -2.39) | 52.72% ( 2.38) |
CF Montreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.41% ( 0.03) | 29.59% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.38% ( 0.04) | 65.62% ( -0.04) |
Score Analysis |
Toronto | Draw | CF Montreal |
1-0 @ 9.58% ( 0.26) 2-1 @ 9.3% ( -0.16) 2-0 @ 7.63% ( -0.14) 3-1 @ 4.94% ( -0.32) 3-0 @ 4.05% ( -0.27) 3-2 @ 3.01% ( -0.19) 4-1 @ 1.97% ( -0.23) 4-0 @ 1.61% ( -0.19) 4-2 @ 1.2% ( -0.14) Other @ 2.8% Total : 46.08% | 1-1 @ 11.67% ( 0.33) 0-0 @ 6.02% ( 0.43) 2-2 @ 5.66% ( -0.09) 3-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.73% | 0-1 @ 7.33% ( 0.53) 1-2 @ 7.11% ( 0.21) 0-2 @ 4.46% ( 0.32) 1-3 @ 2.89% ( 0.09) 2-3 @ 2.3% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 1.81% ( 0.13) Other @ 3.3% Total : 29.19% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 34 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 79 | 49 | 30 | 74 |
2 | Columbus Crew | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 72 | 40 | 32 | 66 |
3 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 58 | 48 | 10 | 59 |
4 | Orlando City | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 59 | 50 | 9 | 52 |
5 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 46 | 37 | 9 | 51 |
6 | New York City FCNY City | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 54 | 49 | 5 | 50 |
7 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 55 | 50 | 5 | 47 |
8 | CF MontrealMontreal | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 48 | 64 | -16 | 43 |
9 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 40 |
10 | DC United | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 52 | 70 | -18 | 40 |
11 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 62 | 55 | 7 | 37 |
12 | Toronto | 34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 37 |
13 | Nashville SCNashville | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 38 | 54 | -16 | 36 |
14 | New England RevolutionNew England | 34 | 9 | 4 | 21 | 37 | 74 | -37 | 31 |
15 | Chicago Fire | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 30 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 63 | 43 | 20 | 64 |
2 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 69 | 50 | 19 | 64 |
3 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 59 |
4 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 51 | 35 | 16 | 57 |
5 | Houston DynamoHouston | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 47 | 39 | 8 | 54 |
6 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 58 | 49 | 9 | 52 |
7 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 61 | 60 | 1 | 50 |
8 | Portland TimbersPortland | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 65 | 56 | 9 | 47 |
9 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 47 |
10 | Austin FCAustin | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 42 |
11 | Dallas | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 54 | 56 | -2 | 41 |
12 | St Louis City | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 50 | 63 | -13 | 37 |
13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 51 | 66 | -15 | 31 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 34 | 6 | 3 | 25 | 41 | 78 | -37 | 21 |